Oluwafemi Adeoye
The Genesis and Exodus of the Crisis
The Ukrainian government has engaged in several confrontations with the Russian government over the occupation and control of some parts of eastern Ukraine, the Crimea region, an area close to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, Ukraine’s affiliation to NATO and the EU, and movement of Russian gas to Europe via Ukraine. Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian President, constantly acquainted world observers with the country’s situation and resolved the crisis. Still, the Russian government showed no commitment to embark on a ceasefire or withdraw military troops from Crimea.
Meanwhile, from 2014 when Russia invaded Ukraine territory, the United States gave financial, technological, and military aid to Ukraine. The US encouraged democratic trajectory, restored Ukraine’s territorial integrity, donated millions of dollars to them, and legislated anti-Russia policies and sanctions. Both Russia and Ukraine were initially members of collapsed Union of Sovereign Soviet Socialists Republics (USSR otherwise known as the Soviet Union) that fought against US/NATO forces before they were defeated. Subsequently, Russia became the primary successor of the Soviet Union with complete suspicion of US economic, socio-political and military policies and vice versa.
Over the years, analysts opined that Ukraine practised a mixed system with democratic and authoritarian features. However, the democratic tendencies of the country improved after the ouster of pro-Russia former Ukraine president Viktor Yanukovych in 2014 the electoral defeat of another former president Petro Poroshenko by the incumbent Volodymyr Zelensky, in 2019. While former Ukraine president Yanukovych maintained close relationships and embraced financial support from Moscow, the incumbent president embraced democratic policies and programmes of the US and moved to join NATO forces. This is a mission believed to portend dangerous implications for Russia’s future military chances in case of external hostility. This development triggered Russia’s Ukraine invasion after removing Yanukovych from power in 2014.
Russia perceived the Revolution of Dignity that saw Yanukovych’s ouster from office as a deliberately backed-up by western forces, a mission believed to threaten the security of Russians in Ukraine. Consequently, after an arranged and what analysts referred to as an illegal referendum, Russia decided to incorporate Crimea with about 2 million people into its territory. Apart from annexing Crimea, Russia masterminded separatist groups in eastern Ukraine that constantly fought with the Ukrainian government. In response, the Ukrainian government always fights for restoration of integration with seceding parts of the country, with some setbacks when Russian troops openly joined the militant groups. Although Russia tried to justify operations of secessionists as a move to protect pro-Russia people, the conflicts have claimed the lives of over 10,000 security personnel, 3,400 civilians and displaced more than 1.4 million people. Apart from this, it was reported that a few hundreds of people are in illegal detentions in the Russian-dominated territories of Ukraine.
It must be noted that what started as a mild conflict became a full-fledge war between these two countries in the post-Soviet Union era because Russia could not accept the independence struggle embarked on by Ukraine that is believed to be close brethren to Russia. Apart from this, Ukraine pitched tents with the US, the perceived enemy of Russia on so many national policy fronts. Since 2015, the intensity of the war between Ukraine and Russia has been a back-and-forth issue with ceasefire attempts and violations until March 2021 when the hostilities gradually intensified.
Below are some of the salient reasons for the Russia-Ukraine war:
Disagreement over Ukraine Sovereignty: Russia expected integration and maximum cooperation with Ukraine as former ‘brethren’ who jointly fought against NATO forces before the eventual Warsaw Pact. Moscow needed this integration to be formidable against all odds. The independence mission of Ukraine led to the involvement and support of the US, a rival state to Russia. The struggle for independence with backing from the US is one of the significant geneses of the Ukraine-Russia crisis.
Scramble for Possession of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine
Shortly after Yanukovych was removed from the seat of power in 2014, Russia and Ukraine struggled over Crimea and eastern Ukraine regions. Russia has since then intensified its heavy military presence in Crimea for annexation purposes.
One of the last Ukrainian bases in Crimea is taken over by Russian forces (Source: https://nyti.ms/3iNTB8r)
More than 30,000 Russian air force, army, and naval officers were deployed to the Crimea region. This has caused several human rights violations, according to a report from United Nations High Commission for Human Rights (UNHCHR) in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and nearby seas. Many international observers have condemned the self-acclaimed annexation of Crimea by Russia, a violation of the pact signed by the US. UK and Russia to respect the sovereignty of Ukraine over its borders. United Nations also condemned the so-called temporary occupation of Crimea territory.
Failure of Peace Resolution Process
In a bid to end the eastern Ukraine conflict, Minsk Agreement was reached and signed by Russia, Ukraine, and fully involved with Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) as endorsed by UN Security Council. However, Russia held on to the claim to have annexed Crimea and therefore shunned all forms of peaceful resolution arrangement of eastern Ukraine’s semblance. As earlier mentioned, Moscow embarked on a different policy in the case of eastern Ukraine as Russia denied its military presence in the area. Contrary to Russia’s claim, the US stated that Russia is 100 percent involved in the command and control of military assault and the economic and political travails of eastern Ukraine. More than 38,000 Russian military troops are engaged in a military assault against the Ukrainian government, while Russian officials confessed to having granted citizenship to people residing around Russian-dominated areas.
Maritime Crisis
Claim over some portion of the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea, and the Kerch Strait connecting bridge between the two seas is another cause of constant conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Russia meddles with the commercial activities of Ukraine through a bridge it constructed that connects with Crimea. Restrictive military men are deployed to ports linking Crimea with Russia. These troops, on the order of higher authorities, commit a series of illegalities. The presence of these troops on the Kerch Strait Bridge hinders Ukraine’s smooth transit commercial exchanges, restrict Ukrainian Naval vessels from passing by the Kerch Strait Bridge to Ukraine shores, forcefully detain some Ukrainian Naval officers and damage their ships in violation of international law and memorandum regulating conduct on the sea.
Reciprocal trade restrictions and economic reforms
The Aftermath of the Cold War dealt a heavy blow on the economic and commercial activities of Ukraine and other Soviet Union states. The country’s economy later bounced back in the early 2000s before it subsequently declined when Russia invaded the country. However, Ukraine sought and received foreign assistance the improve the country’s investment capacity, agricultural production, per capita income, currency strength, and foreign exchange. For instance, when International Monetary Fund gave Ukraine a $16 billion dollar loan, the country’s GDP increased by 2.8% between 2016 and 2019. The invasion of Ukraine occasioned trade restrictions placed on Russia and planned to embrace a free chance agreement with the EU. This policy saw reciprocal retaliation from the Russian government.
Ukraine ties with the EU, NATO, and US
Most of the world leaders and commentators blame Russia for the attack on the assumed weaker neighbouring countries while some allies of Russia blame NATO and USA for the violent conflict. Despite operations of much military personnel in airspace, on land, and water bodies from across different corners of Ukraine, Russia laid claim to de-militarisation, de-Nazification, and protection of some persons against genocide attack in Ukraine. On the contrary, many observers argue that Putin’s decision is mainly to cut Ukraine’s ties with European Union, NATO, and the US Indeed, the EU is a major foreign supporter of Ukraine. EU provided nothing less than $17.9 billion to Ukraine in loans, grants, and bilateral assistance from 2014 to 2019. The EU also gave Ukrainians a free-entry visa while NATO fought their cause on different occasions. Ukraine has for long been interested in full membership of the EU and NATO.
How has Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organizations (CTBTO) been fair so far?
Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organizations (CTBTO) is an agreement reached by some countries to ban the tests of nuclear weapons and other destructive explosive in a bid to ease the fear of nuclear escalation and its devastating consequences. This multilateral treaty was signed on September 10th, 1996. Despite the laudable goals of this organisation, some eight notable countries, North Korea, India, United States, Iran, China, Israel, Egypt, and Pakistan, are not signatories to the pact.
Analysts have once explained the likelihood of Russia abandoning CTBTO and Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) possibly to commercialise their weaponry capacity and because the US is not part of the treaty. Again, history has it that the US dropped the 1972 anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty and shunned all restrictions on weaponry accumulation and deployment. It appears executive, legislative, and civil society organisations in both the US, Russia, and other seven countries with high nuclear arsenals frustrate diplomatic disarmament efforts.
Shortly after the Cold war between the US and the Soviet Union, the central relationship between the two superpowers was several attempts to control weapon development and future exhibition of nuclear capacity as its attendant catastrophe. The collapse of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact led to the transfer of power of that side of the global pole to Russia. The December 2008 General Assembly resolution was adopted with 175 to 1 while 3 countries abstained. CTBTO should seize the ongoing event to stress the need for disarmament and holistic disapproval of weapons of mass destruction.
Against warnings from UN Security Council resolutions, Russia vetoed the decisions and attacked Ukraine territory (Including its capita Kiev) with weapons of massive destruction on 24th February 2022, causing wanton loss of lives and destruction of assets against the principles of CTBTO principles. The resolution called Russia to rescind its military assault mission and withdraw support for disintegration agents in eastern Ukraine. Russia’s attack has attracted sanctions from the US, Canada, European Commission just. Poland, the UK, Czech Republic, and Bulgaria placed a ban on Russia-operated flights from their airspace, but CTBTO appears like a toothless bulldog. UN reported that within the first 48 hours of the invasion, more than 50,000 Ukrainians fled the country. In response to the attack, NATO placed thousands of military troops and 100 jets on high alert to support its ally, Ukraine, in case of nuclear escalation. Currently, by status, CTBTO is not functional as it appears the treaty is failing before arrival.
Observation
A diplomatic end to Russia and Ukraine crisis could call eight weapon-wielding countries that have not signed CTBTO to order. It can also encourage member countries to go back to the drawing board and embark on robust negotiations on the need to embrace CTBTO, similar arms control agreements, and the need for holistic disapproval of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the light of apparent destruction being witnessed by the world in the case of Ukraine and Russia deployment and testing. However, it must be stated that despite the ambitious and laudable goals of CTBTO, the agreement is not functional, which explains why both Russia and Ukraine could act against it.
Finally, as an international relations student, a conversation with CTBTO will help to understudy the organisation’s prospects and ordeals for future research. This development, in turn, will bring about valuable recommendations on ways by which non-signatory weapon welding countries can accept to sign and ratify the treaty and how a powerful modality can be put in place to ensure functional disarmament programmes for countries of the world.
Sources of Photos According to Order of Appearance
- https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/AP22054671443053-1.jpg?resize=770%2C513
- https://www.globalcareersfair.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/CTBTO-logo-e1517417833734.jpg
